India's retail inflation hits 6.09% in October, breaching RBI's limit

India's retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October, up from 5.54% in September, pushing it past the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time since the new CPI series began in January 2026. The figures were released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday (12 November). They are provisional.

Food was the main driver. Food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index, rose to 8.94% from 7.74% in September. Onion prices were 116.22% higher than a year earlier, garlic 60.74%, ginger 48.32% and lemons 47.30%, according to Moneycontrol's reading of the data. Potatoes, cauliflower, brinjal and cabbage were cheaper than a year ago.

Rural India felt it more. Rural inflation was 6.63% against 5.41% in cities, and rural food inflation was 9.09% against 8.68% in urban areas. Among larger states, Tamil Nadu had the highest headline inflation at 7.29%, followed by Telangana at 7.26% and Andhra Pradesh at 7.25%, Moneycontrol reported. Restaurant and accommodation services rose 10.06%, and silver jewellery prices were up 52.39% on the year.

It is the ninth straight monthly rise, and the rate has more than doubled from 2.74% in January, Moneycontrol noted. Mint reported that a poll of 15 economists had expected 6%. The index was rebased to 2024 earlier this year, so the numbers cannot be compared directly with the year-earlier series.

“The primary reason for the inflation breaching the 6% threshold is food inflation,” Ranen Banerjee, partner at PwC India, told Mint, adding that the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to raise rates by another 25 to 50 basis points at its next meeting. The RBI raised rates by 25 basis points in the first week of October and has since moved to a stance of calibrated tightening. The next policy decision is due on 4 December, CNBC-TV18 reported.

Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank, said headline inflation is “yet to peak” and that the data reinforces her expectation of a second straight rate hike in December. ICRA's Aditi Nayar said a 25 bps hike “appears almost certain”. The RBI itself expects inflation to peak at 6% in the October-December quarter, Mint reported. Households are already paying more for milk: as The Indian Idiot reported earlier, Amul and Mother Dairy raised prices from 12 November.