Cyclone alert for Andhra Pradesh and Odisha: what IMD’s forecast says, explained

A depression that formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday evening, October 24, is expected to strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm and cross the Andhra Pradesh coast on the forenoon of October 28, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest bulletin on Sunday. Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha are under a cyclone alert. Here is what the forecast says.

Where is it now? At 8.30 am on Sunday, the depression lay over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, about 440 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands and 880 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, IMD said. It had barely moved in the previous three hours.

How will it grow? IMD expects it to become a deep depression on Sunday, a cyclonic storm by Monday morning, October 26, and a severe cyclonic storm around the morning of October 27, as it moves west-northwest across the Bay. It is then likely to turn northwest and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm near the Andhra Pradesh coast by the morning of October 28.

“The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over Eastcentral and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into a Depression and lay centered at 1200 UTC of today, the 24th October, 2026 over the same region…,” IMD posted on X on Saturday night.

Where will it hit, and how hard? The storm is very likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28, with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph, according to the bulletin. It is forecast to weaken to a deep depression by the morning of October 29 as it moves inland.

What will it be called? Once it becomes a cyclonic storm, it will be named Arnab, a name proposed by Bangladesh, and it will be the first cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal this year, The Indian Express reported.

Who gets the rain? IMD has warned of extremely heavy rain at isolated places in Andhra Pradesh on October 27 and 28, in Odisha and the eastern parts of Telangana on October 28, and in south Chhattisgarh on October 28. Heavy rain is also forecast for the Andaman Islands from October 25 to 27, coastal West Bengal and Vidarbha, and later for Jharkhand, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh on October 29 and 30.

What damage is expected? For coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha on October 27 and 28, IMD’s impact list includes total destruction of thatched houses and extensive damage to kutcha houses, bending or uprooting of power and communication poles, uprooted trees, widespread crop damage, minor disruption to railways and power lines, and flooding of low-lying roads. Sea conditions off Andhra Pradesh are expected to turn “phenomenal” by the morning of October 28.

What about fishermen? IMD has called for a total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen have been told not to go into the east-central Bay of Bengal and the seas around the Andaman Islands until October 26, the west-central Bay from October 26 to 28, and the seas off Andhra Pradesh and Odisha from October 27 to 28.

How is Odisha preparing? On Saturday, the Odisha government ordered schools, colleges and anganwadi centres in Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri districts to stay closed on October 28 and 29, and said 302 rescue teams were ready. “We have prior experience in managing floods and cyclones. Cyclones Dana and Montha were successfully managed,” Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi said at a review meeting, The Hindu reported.